Hi there good little article just a few points though. I think Hopkins should win but here are a few other factors in Oscars favour. Despite the fact that Hopkins Ko'ed Trinidad fair and square i do not think Hopkins is a big puncher, he has admitted this himself. Although he is the first man to stop Tito , Tito has been floored MANY times by lesser men than DLH or Hop. Hopkins could not / did not KO Joppy or Allen. This suggests to me that even if their is a stoppage which i dont think there will be it will be late on probably. DLH Has a better chin than Tito IMO. Also he is HARDER to hit than Tito and IMO has a better chance of lasting the distance. DLH is a better boxer and better at adadapting to different styles than Tito and although he looked awful vs Sturm i think he took that for granted but will be razor sharp for this. IF HE IS in great shape and can work out Hopkins soon into fight i see him having an outside shot at boxing his way to decision. - DanHype Reply: Hi Dan. Actually, I agree that Hopkins is not a big puncher at middleweight...the keywords being AT MIDDLEWEIGHT. But like I stated, Oscar De La Hoya is not a "true" middleweight...just like Trinidad was not a "true" middleweight. Think back to the Hopkins-Trinidad fight for a minute. Better yet...pop in the tape if you have it. If you don't have it, just go to Google Images and do a search on "Hopkins Trinidad". Take a look at some of those pictures and notice the difference in size between Trinidad and Hopkins. Take a look at their arms and their shoulders. It's clear that Hopkins was the bigger, stronger man...and the same will be true for the De La Hoya fight (particularly if Oscar comes in around 154 in order to retain his speed). Just look at how easily Winky Wright was able to push Mosley around at 154...the same Mosley who was able to walk through some of De La Hoya's best shots in order to land those crushing body shots. No, Hopkins isn't the biggest puncher at middleweight, but for this fight, he will be the bigger and stronger man.
You are a DLH hater......not! I agree %100. The only thing I disagree on is the round it will be stopped. I believe that it may end sooner as Oscar's chin has not been tested at 160. Seeing how Hopkins dropped Allen in his last fight, I cannot see Oscar recovering from something like that.Hype Reply: Hahaha...how can you agree with me 100%, but disagree with me on the round? I can't lie...after seeing the press conference video, I thought about changing my pick to an earlier round as well, but then I would really be called a De La Hoya hater. Actually, I do respect Oscar's boxing skills and I do give him a little more credit than that. Barring any lucky, one-punch knockouts, I think Oscar has the ability to keep his distance in the first few rounds. It usually takes Bernard a little bit of time to break his opponents down.
Hello Mr. The Hype,
With regard to your article “Just the Facts: Hopkins – vs - De La Hoya” My opinion is, you state in numerous occasion that you are trying to be unbiased; however, I’m pretty sure there’s more advantages in Oscar’s neck of the woods than what you give him credit for, such as, experience in big time fights. Nevertheless, I have a recent fight which is similar to your “Fighter A & Fighter B” comparison: Fighter A had, height, reach, “power” advantage, and had previously beaten Fighter B twice in the armatures! Now, using your statement “I truly tried to stay as unbias as possible…which is what have to do when you are talking about putting money on the line.” Using your same reasoning, I must assume you lost money in the Cotto – Pinto fight! Bottom line, even though Hopkins has obvious advantages, I believe in the sport of boxing anything could happen! Remember, Hopkins talked about a warlike fight plan (he even wore the war bandana) before the Trinidad fight and fought a completely different fight on fight night, which gave him the impressive victory over Tito. I strongly believe that when Hopkins leads his attack with the left or right hand, he does it goes in a reckless manner, all the time! and I think Oscar is going to capitalize on that all the time! Don’t be surprised: Oscar by unanimous decision! Respectively, Angel BaezHype Reply: Hi Angel. Actually, I don't know how factual it is to say that "experience in big time fights" is an advantage. I mean, what exactly does that mean? Just because someone has fought in front of bigger crowds, does that necessarily mean he has an advantage? If we're talking about a sport like football or basketball, where homefield advantage can play a critical role in the outcome of a game due to crowd noise, then yeah...that's definitely an advantage. But this is boxing! Other than the occassional chants you hear for the favorite fighter, the crowd really has no impact on the outcome of the fight (unless, of course, those ooohs and aaahs are influencing the decisions of the judges). Perhaps you're implying that Oscar should have the "psychological" edge due to the fact that he's more accustomed to fighting in front of the bigger crowd. Well what you're really talking about is the pyschological pressure to perform. Will the magnitude of the fight put too much pressure on Hopkins? I don't think so. No matter how big the crowd is, if you're a world champion, the pressure to perform...the pressure to succeed...the pressure to stay on top always exists (especially if you're not a "house fighter" and one loss could mean the end of your career, or at the very least, the end of your big paydays). Bernard Hopkins has been a world champion just as long as Oscar has. Yeah, when it comes down to the number of butts they put in the seats, Oscar definitely has the advantage. But as far as who has the advantage when it comes down to peforming under pressure, I'd have to lean towards Hopkins. Bernards entire career has been do-or-die since he became champion and this fight is no different. De La Hoya's career, on the other hand, has not. How many other fighters out there can lose twice to the same guy and still command the lion's share of the purse? Even with this fight against Hopkins, Oscar has absolutely nothing to lose (except for some teeth). Anyway, to make a long story just a little bit longer, I don't think that "experience in big fights" is a viable advantage. However, the ability to perform under pressure definitely is...and I give that advantage to Hopkins. After all, how many people can go down to Puerto Rico, grab the flag out of Trinidad's hand, toss it on the ground, and get the hell out of dodge unscathed - and then stand in front of a very large Puerto Rican crowd in Madison Square Garden and proceed to box the ears off of the island's favorite son? Talk about pressure...geesh! By the way, hit the predictions section up and check out my prediction for the Cotto-Pinto fight. I believe it was Cotto TKO7 (damn...missed it by 1 round). Yeah, Pinto had the height and reach advantage, but Cotto had the advantage in power and level of competition. I think initially, a lot of people thought that fight could have gone either way as far as the outcome was concerned. I just gave the edge to Cotto because he fought the more difficult competition and thus, improved his skill and technique. As far as De La Hoya and Hopkins is concerned, I think both guys have fought some pretty good competition so I really don't think either guy has an advantage in that department. Sure, De La Hoya has fought the bigger names, but guys like Joppy, Trinidad, Echols, Holmes, and Johson aren't exactly bums. I mean, if Trinidad is a bum, then what does that say about Vargas, who beat Wright, who beat Mosley, who beat Oscar twice?
Hey man, I’ve analyzed these fighters and pre analyzed this match up! You know what I don’t know whose going to win! Oscar is going to have to do a lot of things right to win! Bernard Hopkins just has to do what he always does better! I think Hopkins has trained to exploit his strengths more efficiently and effectively than he has in the past! I think that as a student of boxing Hopkins scrutinized the Hagler/Leonard match up for analysis, as well as previous DLH matches! I don’t see a scenario where Oscar could win unless he is a totally different fighter than he’s always been! For example if Oscar is in superior cardiovascular condition, with stronger legs and much more upper body strength (Floyd Maywether Sr. is an anti-weight training trainer), i.e. stronger than Bernard Hopkins, he would most likely win, because his punches would have the ‘respect getting’ effect and also do damage to Hopkins! But that’s not all Hopkins is a slick fighter when he has to be as he was against Tito Trinidad, he ‘feints’ to be hurt or passive to draw a fighter in so he can deliver punishing shots, once he does this the other fighter disengages then Hopkins goes on the attack delivering more punishment, this ebb and flow is how Hopkins dictates the pace of the fight. As far as Oscar pulling a stick and move and dancing all night if his power is lacking it will be ineffective, plus contrary to Hopkins naysayers he can cut off the ring effectively! The only scenario that I can see Oscar ‘clearly’ winning this fight is if he stands toe to toe with Hopkins and beats him just like Trinidad tried to do, but I think this strategy along with a stick and move strategy is what Oscar will do to eek out a decision, unless Oscar establishes himself as the stronger man as he did with Fernando Vargas!Hype Reply: Not a bad breakdown of the fight, but I don't necessarily think that Oscar needs to go toe-to-toe with Hopkins in order to win. I think the possibility to outbox Hopkins exists, but it'll take a superior boxer to do it. Oscar's good, but he's no "Sugar" Ray Leonard. In fact, he's no Roy Jones Jr. either. He'll have his moments that'll bring the crowd to their feet, but ultimately, at 160 (okay...okay...at 157) the much bigger man will wear him down (at least that's my opinion). I do think people are taking Hopkins' ability to cut the ring off for granted. They like to point to the Hakkar fight as an example. But let's keep it real...Hopkins was playing with Hakkar in there. He was no threat to Bernard and Bernard knew it. Seeing as how the fight was in his hometown, I think he was just trying to pull a Roy Jones Jr. by attempting to make a fight out of it. If he really wanted it to be, that fight could have been over a lot sooner than it was. Oscar may run, but he won't be able to hide and Hopkins is going to force him to stand and fight at some point. Will the smaller man be able to survive the pressure from the bigger man? I don't think so.
Good article. De La Hoya's speed is great, but his stamina never is. He said he was in the best shape of his life for Mosely 2, remember? A fight he HAD to win, REVENGE. And what happened? Same thing. Round 8 he slows dramatically. But when you're in there with Hopkins, you tire because he hits you in the hips and the legs and behind the head and everywhere else. Hopkins fights you. And I love him for it. Let me ask you something... I read yesterday that two of the judges were the judges that gave Oscar his win over Sturm. That worries me. Do you know anything about this ref? Because if it's a guy that interrupts grappling before any work gets done, if it's a guy that doesn't let them fight their way out, that worries me. Hopkins wins fights in those clinches. Do you know anything about him? - JHHype Reply: Thanks for the props. How can I forget that? Oscar tells us the same thing for EVERY fight..."I'm in the best shape of my life"...until he looks horrible against an unknown german. Then we find out the truth..."I underestimated him because I was not motivated". Yeah...whatever! He must have got that technique from Arum..."yesterday I was lying, today I'm telling the truth". Win or lose, Oscar's definitely going to get some bruises in this fight (especially if Sturm and Mosley can mark him up the way they did). Like you said, Hopkins hits you everywhere. Yeah, you're right about the judges, but I don't even see the fight making it that far. Kenny Bayless was selected as the third man in the ring, which is a good thing. Bayless generally stays out of the way and lets the guys actually fight (advantage Hopkins). Plus, he's never worked a bout involving either fighter. His most notable work was probably the first Jones-Tarver fight.
Hey hypeman, what's happening? I just read your article (very intersting) and I can't argue with any of your facts. However, i think you forgot a few of the facts. Fact: Bernard is old, pushing 40 so I would have to give Oscar the age advantage, even if Bernard is in better condition between fights. Fact: Regarding power, Hopkins couldn't catch Hakkar until late, and didn't knock out Joppy, but Trinidad did. Trinidad did not Knock out Oscar, despite having an in advantage in power. Fact: Oscar had a psychological disadvantage to Felix Sturm because he thought he was a typical European paper champ that he could easily beat, so he was out of shape for that fight and looked past him to the Hopkins fight. I believe Oscar knows he will have to bring his A+ game in order to beat Hopkins. So my only point is, I think Oscar is overall at a disadvantage, but if he comes in shape and boxes to the best of his ability, he will pose more problems for Bernard than people think. Bernard is in great shape, but age will eventually take it's toll so maybe Oscar is fighting him at the right time. Thanks, stace, upcoast CanadaHype Reply: Hi Stace. Not much is happening...at least not until tomorrow night. Actually, as the saying goes, "age ain't nothing but a number". I purposely did not include age as a fact simply because I don't believe that it's an advantage. It certainly wasn't an advantage for Felix Trinidad and it definitely wasn't an advantage for Michael Moorer. How about in other sports? Lance Armstrong for example...or Jerry Rice. I might consider it a factor if we're talking about a young, hungry fighter versus a fighter that's well past his prime...but that simply isn't the case in this fight. Hopkins would have to pull a Rip Van Winkle and literally age overnight for it to be a factor. That's just not going to happen. When it comes to power and strength, I'm not really referring to knockout power. I'm talking about the size differential. At middleweight, Hopkins is going to be a much bigger and stronger man than De La Hoya. Keep in mind that De La Hoya (and Mosley for that matter) weren't very big junior middleweights. Just look at how easily Winky Wright was able to push Mosley around. It'll be just as easy for Hopkins to muscle the smaller De La Hoya around (since I expect him to weigh-in around 154lbs). Whether or not Oscar was motivated for Sturm doesn't really concern me. However, when it comes to the psychological advantage, that edge goes to Hopkins. Every fight for him is do-or-die. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure they are for Oscar too. The difference is, Oscar can lose twice to the same guy and still command the lion's share of the purse for a third fight. A loss does not mean the end of his career or the end to his big paydays. For Hopkins, however, it does.
Hey Hype, unless Hopkins gets old overnight or injured, I can't see Oscar winning. In fact, Bernard claims he's going right after Oscar from round one not allowing him to steal any rounds or momentum. I think this is a very wise choice. If the fight is close, Hopkins will lose. And he knows it. I may be wrong, but I really don't see a fight here. Hopkins will establish himself early, Hoya will fight with all his heart, and somewhere in the middle rounds he will know there is nothing he can do to win and simply will just try and survive. Hopkins won't allow it. He wants the KO. Incidently, when I read pro-Oscar pundits they disparangily speak of Hopkins' previous opposition. I would like to see anyone at 154-160 try and step up against Echols. Although not a great boxer, he would destroy all in that weight class. A bigger Terry Norris. I'm just hoping that the Hispanic population bets this fight down to a Hopkins -190 and a Hopkins KO +350. I jus't don't get it. Hoya was bullied by Mosely. How's he going to handle Hopkins? Hype Reply: Brother, I've been asking myself those same questions over and over again. No matter how many times and how many ways I look at this fight, I just can't see De La Hoya pulling out the victory. He's definitely going to have an uphill struggle. Don't get me wrong, this is boxing and anything can happen. However, when I look at the advantage of each fighter, I still have to favor Hopkins. Oscar's going to have to have the fight of his life...I'm just not sure if he's got it in him. One things for sure though, if I'm as wrong about this fight as some of these emails have suggested, then we should definitely be in for a fantastic night of boxing. No matter who wins, if the fight turns out to be that good, I'll be a happy man.
I couldn't agree w/ you more Hopkins is the clear choice. 2 things you forgot to mention though in the facts department: age, and the potentially pro DLH judges. These 2 facts combined w/ your speed fact at least make the fight interesting. Being pro Hopkins my only concern is that if DLH goes the distance and uses his speed/stays on the outside/runs- how will the judges see it, even if Hop lands the harder shots. I'm feeling your TKO R9 prediction, given Hop's advantages (DLH can't hurt him and he knows it) this will end badly for Oscar, but w/ 30 mill in the pocket who can feel bad. - D
.Hype Reply: As I've said before, I truly don't think age is going to be a factor in this fight. 39...31...who cares...they're both thirty-something. Hopkins has shown no signs of slowing down and I doubt that he'll start on the night of what he feels is the biggest fight of his life. As for the judges, I'm not even going down that controversy road. Quite honestly, I don't think Hopkins is going to allow the judges to decide this fight. Wasn't it interesting how Oscar stated that he knew he couldn't knockout Hopkins? Sounds like somebody already has the edge in the psychological department.
I like you article on the facts of Oscar and Hopkins. When you talk about Hopkins being more powerful then Oscar you make it sound like Oscar is fighting Scot Mendelson, the dude that holds the world bench press record of 880lbs. I don't believe Hopkins is stronger then Vargas, he posseses better boxing skills but on brute force, he holds nothing over Vargas. Now Vargas gave everything to Oscar, he almost took him out the ring, but didn't stop him, knock him down, nothing, and again, just because Hopkins is taller, and has more body definition then Vargas, it dosent make him stronger. Hakkar was able to outrun Hopkins for 8 or 9 rounds, and Hakkar has nothing on Oscar. Oscar has a solid chin, he is faster then Hopkins, younger, and has if not more the same but not less boxing skills then Hopkins. Has faced better competition then Hopkins, and we have to remember what has Hopkins done in the past 6 years? 18 title defenses? Well until 2001 he was holding one belt. Oscar is not facing Roy Jones Jr, or Antonio Tarver and James Toney, to say he will be crush by the powerful Hopkins, Hopkins is strong, and I'm sure he is stronger then Oscar, but not stronger then Vargas, and I don't think he hits harder then Vargas, and Vargas didn't hit Oscar, he landed bombs, and Oscar took them all. I tell you this much, don't be surprise to see Hopkins tired and loosing by decision. I haven't sold my self to what the media wants us to believe, just like Cotto. Cotto needs to fight somebody at 154 or 160lbs in order for me to believe all this hype of the next Trinidad. Cotto was 156 and fighting at 140??? I don't get it?Hype Reply: Again, thanks for the props. As far as brute force and who can bench more, Hopkins or Vargas, I think they would both get schooled by Mosley...hahaha. Seriously though, at 160, you're talking about a bigger man. Hopkins appeared to be a lot bigger and stronger than Trinidad, who most people felt was a blown-up middleweight. Winky Wright, at 154, appeared to be a lot bigger and stronger than Mosley, who most people felt was a blown-up junior middleweight. What exactly does that say about Oscar's chances, who was barely able to dent Mosley (at 147 and 154)? Hopkins is no Mendelson, but he will be the bigger man in the ring on Saturday night...and the size difference will be a factor in this fight. Yeah, Hakkar was able to "run", but I don't remember Hopkins applying too much pressure on him in that fight. It really looked like he was just kind of playing around in there. Hopkins is no Trinidad and contrary to popular belief, he does have the ability to cut off the ring. Actually, I would be very surprised to see Hopkins tire out before De La Hoya. I'll tell you what, you're right about Cotto though...he's not the next Trinidad...yet...but he certainly has had a good start. Incidentally, I'm not excatly sure why Cottos fighting at 140, but as long as he can make the weight, then why not. Maybe he's fighting at 140 because he carries more punching power at the lower weight against the smaller guys.
Your comments were very well written and all the facts are true, I could not have said it better myself. I think that Oscar will last a little longer, TKO 11.Hype Reply: Thanks. I appreciate the kinds words. I can't lie, he does look to be in much better condition. I hope that doesn't work against him though. I'd hate to hear someone use the excuse of overtraining.
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