Saul Alvarez-Sergey Kovalev Preview: Canelo opens as betting favorite as he dares to be great

By G. Leon

17/09/2019

Saul Alvarez-Sergey Kovalev Preview: Canelo opens as betting favorite as he dares to be great

On Saturday, Nov. 2nd, Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (51-1-2, 35 KOs) will try to do something few fighters have ever done: win a world title in a third weight class. Canelo – who has already captured world titles at 154 and 160 pounds – is continuing his climb up the divisions, recently inking a fight against current WBO 175-pound champion Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev (34-3-1, 29 KOs) at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. According to MyTopSportsbooks.com the opening odds for the fight are heavily in favor of Alvarez making history. The Mexican challenger is a -450 favorite against the Russian champ. 
 
Can Alvarez Overcome Height, Weight, and Reach Gap? Canelo was always huge for a junior middleweight, but fighting at 175 pounds represents a nearly twenty-pound jump from his original weight class. 
 
Alvarez will likely be about 5-10 pounds lighter than Kovalev on fight night, when the Russian will step into the ring around 185-190 pounds. Yet oddsmakers don’t seem worried, and that’s likely because they have already seen Canelo survive some of the hardest shots in the boxing world. 
 
Canelo stepped into the ring twice with Gennady Golovkin, ate a few of GGG’s biggest power punches both times, and stayed on his feet for 24 straight rounds. Only one other boxer has ever survived a full 12 rounds with the Kazakh (Daniel Jacobs circa 2017), and no other fighter has ever defeated GGG, which Canelo did in the rematch after the pair fought to a draw the first go-around.
 
Alvarez will not just be at a weight disadvantage to Kovalev on fight night, of course. The Mexican will, for one of the first times in his career, be at a significant disadvantage in terms of height and reach. 
 
Kovalev stands 6’0 with a 72” (184 cm) reach. Canelo is just 5’8 with a 70.5” (179 cm) reach. GGG had a couple inches on Canelo, height-wise, but Canelo actually had slightly longer arms. 
 
But again, oddsmakers don’t see this as a problem area, likely because of Alvarez’s preferred style.
 
Canelo has never been one to stand on the perimeter and keep opponents at a distance with his jab. He thrives in close, andworks the body to great effect.  
 
In his victory in the GGG rematch, he threw just 256 jabs to Golovkin’s 547. But he landed 46 power punches to the body to just 6 for GGG. 
 
That raises the somewhat counter-intuitive question: will the smaller, less-powerful Alvarez be able to close the distance on the stronger Kovalev and bring the fight into his comfort zone? 
 
This is where things could get tricky for the challenger, depending on how the champion plays it. Kovalev has a very effective jab – better than Golovkin’s – and while he also possesses great KO ability in his power shots, he’ll be keenly aware that Canelo is most-dangerous from close range, where he can use his considerably better hand speed to outpoint Kovalevin exchanges. 
 
While Kovalev is a ripe old 37, Canelo is no spring chicken, either, now nearly 30. His movement around the ring is not been as spry as it once was, as his knee continues to slow him somewhat. If he cuts a large, immobile target for Kovalev’s jab on the way in, he could wind up suffering quite a lot of damage each time he tries to get in range. 
 
All in all, the matchup is a fascinating one which will create an in-ring dynamic we rarely see. But one thing is certain, and is likely playing a big part in the early odds (which, again, are heavily skewed towards Canelo): if Kovalev is going to win, it may have to be by stoppage. 
 
Alvarez is a fan-favorite, fighting in his usual confines of Las Vegas, where judges have always treated him favorably. Kovalev has already been on the losing end of one controversial decision in Nevada, a 2016 UD loss to Andre Ward in which all three judges scored it 114-113, and his camp has to be concerned about what will happen if the Canelo fight winds up in the judges’ hands, as well. 

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