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September 13, 2013

Rob Soucy's analysis and prediction

On Saturday night Danny Garcia will put his world junior welterweight title on the line against Lucas Matthysse. About a month ago, I predicted that Matthysse would knock Garcia out but after being around both fighters for three days, I have formed a different opinion. Matthysse does not talk like or have the demeanor of an extremely confident fighter. The magnitude of the event could be getting to him as he has never been part of a true big-fight atmosphere.

Garcia on the other hand seems to be thriving as he takes in all the hoopla. He has the aura of a fighter who believes that he is going to win. His dad/trainer Angel Garcia certainly helps take the pressure off of his son with his antics as well. Danny Garcia feels like he can make Matthysse fight going backwards, something Matthysse has never done.

I think Garcia is a very good counter puncher and should let Matthysse come to him.

While it is certainly possible that Garcia makes a mistake and gets clipped, I think he has a solid game plan that will confuse and frustrate Matthysse. One thing Garcia does extremely well is think in the ring. He’ll use his ring smarts to navigate his way through the first six rounds and then come on strong over the second half of the fight. While not an explosive puncher, Garcia punches hard enough to hurt Matthysse.

Somehow Matthysse is a three to one favorite according to the latest odds at the MGM Grand Sports book. I see this as a 50/50 fight with the smart money on Garcia who will find a way to get it done!

To see Boxingtalk's Doveed Linder's video analysis of Garcia-Matthysse, click here.

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